Segundo a consultoria econômica, restrições internacionais contra brasileiros podem afetar drasticamente o setor. David Goodger, que analisa o mercado de turismo pela consultoria britânica Oxford Economics, afirmou que o cenário do setor no Brasil só deve voltar aos mesmos patamares do ano de 2019 somente a partir de 2023.
“A nossa divisão está realizando uma série de previsões para mapearmos o futuro do turismo no mundo, além das restrições de viagens, considerando a vontade do consumidor em voltar a viajar e os gastos não previstos. Infelizmente nós não teremos recuperação total do Brasil enquanto não houver uma flexibilização internacional [das viagens]”, afirmou Goodger.
“Nós esperamos que elas sejam menos da metade em 2020 do que foi em 2019 o total de viagens em um cenário mundial. Uma recuperação completa do setor no Brasil pode se dar apenas em 2022”.
“Infelizmente a economia doméstica para o Brasil também não é positiva para 2020 de forma geral. Vemos grandes quedas na economia doméstica no momento, isso pode levar o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do país cair bastante. Nós não esperamos que o PIB volte aos níveis de 2019 até 2022”, disse Goodger.
Questionado sobre as mudanças do cenário com a fabricação de uma vacina contra a Covid-19, Goodger mencionou que pode haver uma aceleração do processo de recuperação, que aconteceria a partir de 2021.
Além de Goodger, a transmissão contou com a participação de Terry Dale, presidente da U.S. Tour Operators Association (USTOA), a associação dos operadores de turismo dos EUA. João Nagy, do grupo WTC São Paulo, o economista Roberto Giannetti e o presidente da rede Accor para América do Sul, Patrick Mendes, também participaram.
Brasil só deve retomar os ganhos no turismo por completo somente em 2023, diz analista da Oxford Economics
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